The Hour That Changed America: 10pm to 11pm EST Nov 5, 2024

10pm to 11pm EST Nov 5, 2024

Introduction

Love him or hate him Donald Trump is one of the most consequential presidents in American history. He is probably the most polarizing.

On election night November 5th 2024, an emotional rollercoaster unfolded live on network television and across the internet, as America suffered or celebrated President Trump’s victory over Vice President Kamala Harris.

The following is a minute-by-minute, political play-by-play of election night 2024, culminating in the hour that changed America.

Breaking Down the Race

Political junkies all know the magic number. 270 electoral votes are needed to win the presidency. Every four years presidential campaigns scrutinize their electoral maps as they try to piece together a strategy to win enough states to reach the magic 270.

The Fight for 51 or 44

Going into the election home stretch, most pundits believed Kamala Harris had 226 electoral votes safely in her column. Similarly, Donald Trump appeared to have 219 electoral votes from safe red leaning states.

The seemingly close battleground states of Arizona and Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina, and the “Blue Wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania would decide the election.

The Easier Path?

Trump needed to get 51 additional electoral votes from these seven battleground states, while Harris only needed 44. It seemed that Harris had the easier path. But did she?

There was a problem. North Carolina and Georgia, though considered battlegrounds, had a reddish history and heritage. They seemed more likely to fall to Trump, and polls there had Trump slightly ahead. Should Harris contest them? “We don’t have to have them, but they would be icing on the cake,” was the prevailing thought of many Democratic operatives.

But they could also be fool’s gold, if time and treasure was squandered on them, only to lose. At the same time, if Harris didn’t contest them vigorously, she would be ceding 32 more electoral votes, allowing Trump dangerously close to the magic 270.

Three State Checkmate

Trump’s needed 51 would drop to only 19, the very number of electoral votes of Pennsylvania. You can see the problem. North Carolina and Georgia could become the foundation of three state electoral checkmate. Several other paths to 270 were possible if North Carolina and Georgia fell to Trump. It seemed probable that Georgia and North Carolina would go red, making Pennsylvania an absolute must win for Harris.

More Possible Problems

Complicating Harris’s battleground troubles were changes in the dynamics of Nevada and Arizona. Trump, who is often impulsive and open to new approaches, proposed “No tax on tips.” This was a winning proposal to thousands of service workers in Nevada who would normally vote Democratic. This was important because years of bitter campaigning had voters entrenched. It had become very difficult to move the presidential needle, but this policy stance just might.

And Arizona was problematic because it had been adversely affected by massive illegal immigration. Border security was a problem issue for Harris along with the inflation/bad economy headwinds she also faced. Arizona was also important because its’ electoral count of 11 could cancel out the “Blue Wall” state of Wisconsin. Multiple paths to 270, was becoming a reality for the Trump campaign.

Unless there was a shift in the popular vote in Harris’s direction, her path to 270 ran almost exclusively through a sweep of the blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

The Home Stretch

Both campaigns held several rallies as they stumped across the battlegrounds in the final days. Election eve found Trump in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and finally at a late-night rally in Grand Rapids Michigan. So much for Trump being too old to handle the rigors of the presidency.

Harris finished with a huge, spirited rally in Philadelphia. Trump had been polling favorably in many battlegrounds, but Harris seemed to have finished stronger and was gaining slightly in many polls. Most pundits and prognosticators considered the race a toss-up.

Election Day

Because of Harris’s strong finish, a popular vote shift in her direction was certainly possible. The last battleground polls revealed no clear winner. Excitement, nervousness, optimism, and dread were palpable for both camps. The stakes also seemed exceedingly high to the millions on both sides, who were emotionally invested in the outcome.

Washinton DC 10am

Harris seemed energized election morning as she visited enthusiastic supporters at a campaign office in Washington DC. Cheers erupted as she entered the room, walked center stage, and got on her cell phone to encourage a voter to get to the polls.

Florida

Trump looked tired as he spoke with reporters as he and Melania prepared to cast their votes in Palm Beach.

Both candidates felt confident and apprehensive. They returned to their respective homesteads to wait.

Election Day Tea Leaves

As election coverage began, reports of long lines on college campuses, and at Democratic precincts, buoyed Harris camp optimism. And the first exit polls had Democratic operatives barely able to hide their smiles.

Steve Kornacki, of MSNBC and other analysts may have thrown accidental curve balls when they reported that the “State of Democracy” had edged out the economy as the number one issue of voters who participated in exit polls. The State of Democracy was a major Democratic campaign talking point. This was one of many “tea” leaves eagerly read, or read into, by Democratic leaning commentators.

7:30 to 8:00 The Count Begins

The First Calls

By seven thirty and eight o’clock, anecdotal evidence that had seemed so promising to Democrats, was being replaced by real numbers. Early calls for Trump in Indiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia began the roll of Trump’s red state victories. Harris carried Vermont as expected. Though there were no big surprises, Trump’s numbers seemed strong.

Both sides felt simultaneous optimism and apprehension.

8:00 PM

Red Mirage or?

There were clues in the numbers from the state calls that came in at 8 o’clock. Florida was called for Trump as soon as the polls closed certainly a good sign for team red.

Micro numbers from precincts across the country were also encouraging to the Trump camp. And on the macro level of the electoral college, Trump continued his expected early red state surge. His electoral count quickly went over 100, while Harris lagged far behind.

But was this a Red Mirage like in 2020? Would there be enough blue state victories later, for the election to be competitive? Or was this going to be more like the Trump victory of 2016?

The ever-likable Kornacki may have been the most prescient analyst of election night. He picked up early and reported on the consistent over performance of Trump in rural areas of Georgia. Kornacki examined 10 key rural counties and found Trump was overperforming by one to three percent in all ten of them! This obviously boded well for Trump taking Georgia which he lost by only 12,000 votes in 2020.

Kornacki also wasn’t fooled by Harris’s strong early vote percentages. Some outlets compared Harris’s early vote percentages with Biden’s final numbers. Early voting numbers for Harris in many states included a high percentage of early voting results. They were bound to be higher than Biden’s final numbers in 2024. Kornacki advised waiting to see how same day voting numbers affected Harris’s percentages and surmised they might well drop. They did…almost across the board.

Closer to 2016?

Two more early signs of trouble for Harris were the nationwide popular vote total, and Trump’s winning margin in Florida. The sunshine state that was once a battleground state, was a blow out for Trump. This is why most news outlets were able to call Florida for Trump as soon as the Eastern time zone polls closed. And rural Florida counties often mirror rural Georgia counties. In both cases Trump’s voter turnout and percentages were robust. And in the nationwide popular vote, Trump was running ahead of his 2016 and 2020 pace.

Things would get even dicier for the Harris camp during the 9 o’clock hour.

9 PM to 10 PM EST

As of 9:00 pm no battleground state had been called, and no state had flipped unexpectantly. Trump was ahead in Georgia and North Carolina while Harris led in all three blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Even though Trump’s trendlines were solid in many places, a blue wall sweep was still Harris’s path, albeit a narrow one, to the presidency.

Harris operatives tried to remain positive hoping that the early leads in the blue wall would hold. MSNBC and other outlets continued to reference anecdotal evidence such as long lines on college campuses and in big city areas. Celebrities like Paul Rudd, Jennifer Garner, and Mark Cuban made phone calls or personal appearances encouraging students to stay in line. The crowd at Howard University was lively and still hopeful of a Harris win and a victory speech.

The Roll Continues

Texas, Wyoming, South Dakota, and North Dakota were all called for Trump,

pushing his electoral total to 154, according to CNN. Harris had as little as 30 according to some outlets.

As more states were called and Trump’s electoral count increased, Chris Wallace and other commentators were cautious pointing out that no state had flipped unexpectantly. No one had broken serve. No battleground state had been called.

9:28 CBN

The Canadian Broadcast Network referenced a bump in electoral votes that for Kamala Harris. New York had come in, though later and closer than expected.

But any win however small, is a complete win in our electoral college “winner take all” system. Unfortunately for Harris her narrow wins were indicative of weaker performance across the board and that did not portend well for crucial battleground states.

CBN’s electoral count had Trump ahead by 100 electoral votes 162 to 62.

Two Thirds of 3 State Checkmate?

The leads in Georgia and North Carolina were substantial providing the possible foundation of three move checkmate. In Georgia 66% of the vote was in and Trump’s lead was over 200,000 votes. His lead was about 100,000 in North Carolina with 40% of the vote counted.

With this high of a percentage of votes in, the results were probably more representative of what the final vote would be. They were less likely to be skewed by too high a percentage of early votes. Only a huge disparity of more urban votes than rural votes, could salvage Georgia and North Carolina for Harris.

Democrats hoped that later reporting urban areas, could still turn the tide.

Though Harris was ahead in the blue wall states, there was a far lower percentage of precincts reporting. Before calling any state, Networks had to wait until they were sure the remaining outstanding votes were too few, for the trailing candidate to pass the leader.

Kornacki’s observation about a possible drop in Harris’s percentages as same day voting numbers came in, was coming to pass in many states. If the drop in Harris percentages continued in the blue wall, she was in trouble.

As the night wore on the biggest remaining consideration, was whether or not there were significantly more outstanding votes, from Harris-friendly urban counties in contested states. There were but probably not enough. She seemed destined to fall short.

9:34 Trump Headquarters in West Palm Beach…Chris Rea of CBN reported the crowd was getting louder as more states were called for Trump. He said the ballroom was brimming with more and more confidence.

Only the memory of the late-night absentee ballot vote drops that erased Trump leads in 2020, tempered their enthusiasm.

At Howard University dancing was giving way to concern and wishful thinking.

The most hopeful sign for Harris was her 300 thousand vote lead in Pennsylvania, but it was early with only 16% of the vote counted. “Cautiously optimistic” was giving way to “nauseously optimistic.” People in the know were beginning to see which way the election was trending. And the true data of actual vote totals was beginning to unnerve the Harris camp.

By 9:54 Katie Simpson of CBN spoke of a dramatic shift of Harris supporters who went from nauseous optimism to straight nausea.

More concerned, unhappy faces could be seen in the background. The close-up shots were reminiscent of the long faces of disappointed Hillary Clinton supporters, at the Javit’s Center in New York, on election night 2016.

Retreat to the Blue Wall

As troubling as things were, Harris still had not lost any of her expected blue states. A Blue Wall sweep would still give her the White House.

In their boiler room at the Marquis Hotel, Harris staff members were trying to make sense of conflicting information. She did seem to be performing well in important suburban counties. And exit polls had her doing surprisingly well with senior woman. But to win, Harris needed to extract more net votes from Democratic strongholds like Philadelphia, Milwaukee, and Detroit.

Young and Minority Shrinkage

In some cases, Harris was close to hitting needed turnout numbers. But exit polls showed a slight slippage from black males, and major drops in Latino support. And at college precincts significant members of pro Trump males were casting their votes. It appeared these unexpected results would keep Harris from making up enough ground to overcome Trump’s stronger performance in Republican areas.

Democrats still hoped there were enough vote drops coming from Democratic strongholds to turn the tide.

Déjà vu was soon to be experienced by one of the two camps. Republicans with the early morning heartbreak of 2020, or Democrats with the same sinking feeling they had when Hillary fell short in 2016.

The table was set for the hour that changed America.

“The Hour that Changed America”

10pm to 11pm EST Nov 5, 2024

During the MSNBC’s top of the hour recap, MSNBC election anchor Rachel Maddow repeated “too close to call” several times and then added “let’s sing it” as though the election was really too close to call. But her heart wasn’t in it. She couldn’t hide her concern. She was beginning to realize Harris was in trouble.

There were result driven reasons for her angst. Trump continued to hold the line in Georgia and North Carolina. Montana, Utah, and Kansas were called pushing Trump’s electoral total to 201. If Georgia and North Carolina fell to Trump as they were trending, the magic 270 was in striking distance.

Emotions Out of the Closet

After Maddow’s recap, the MSNBC panel gave a nervous collective laugh, followed by comments that betrayed any thoughts of neutrality. What had been repressed was now bubbling to the surface. The panel was unhappy as each began to realize they were losing.

Nicole Wallace looked glum and concerned as she noted a convincing win for Harris was off the table. Only a nail-biting Blue Wall rally could land Harris in the White House.

To Joi Reid even the partial results were shocking and “should not make us proud.” She lamented that even “putting aside Trump’s poor close, and all the awful things he’s said and done, if that gets you 50 percent, what does that say about us?”

The political ramifications of a Trump victory soon became a topic. Left leaning commentators (virtually everyone at MSNBC) and at most networks, were dismayed at Trump’s surprising strength. The possibility of a Republican sweep of the White House, Congress, and the Senate was real.

As the hour wore on, Kornacki could see the chess board. Leads in North Carolina and Georgia were close to insurmountable. Wins there along with other expected red state victories, would put Trump at 251 making a loss in Pennsylvania fatal for Harris. Commentators from numerous outlets described Pennsylvania as do or die for Harris.

Pennsylvania Flips

Perhaps the most disconcerting development for Democrats during the ten o’clock hour, was Trump taking the lead in Pennsylvania. Harris’s early 330,000 vote lead had evaporated.

All their hopes seemed to rest on a blue wall victory and the huge early lead in Pennsylvania had been psychologically reassuring. Losing Georgia and North Carolina were tolerable if early leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin held. Unfortunately for Harris, her early blue wall leads came from Democratic precincts and early voting.

The shrinkage of her lead in Pennsylvania had been pronounced and steady with each vote dump, as red areas began to report in greater numbers.

Democratic podcaster David Packman quickly and accurately recognized the steady and troubling trend. With each Pennsylvania vote dump, he deduced the actual percentage of her 330,000 vote lead, that had been lost. This was remarkable on the spot coverage for a guy who winged it non-stop as an anchor with no co-host. Packman’s coverage, though clearly from the democratic point of view, was pretty solid in light of him being solo almost every minute.

Early in the 10 o’clock hour, the Harris lead in Pennsylvania had fallen to only 20,000, according to CNN. Trump soon passed her. By 10:30 CBS News had Harris trailing by 115,000 votes with 67% of the vote in. Things were getting scary. It was still too close to call, but an unsettling change in a crucial must-win state for Harris. Democratic hopes now hinged on late votes from Philadelphia.

Rock solid in Georgia

By 10:30 Georgia had counted 4.7 million out of 5.2 million votes according to Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger. Though no network had called the race, Raffensberger said Trump’s lead in Georgia was insurmountable.

Even though he was a Republican, Raffensberger was considered a straight shooter by Democrats because he had stood up to President Trump in the aftermath of the 2020 election.

As Trump’s drive to victory seemed more likely, many commentators dutifully prefaced their remarks with the qualifier-“It hasn’t been called yet.” Then they talked openly about the history making comeback that was taking place as 45 became 47.

During the 10 o’clock hour Democratic hopes had been reduced to wishful thinking and hopium. The picture was clearer as…

The Clock Strikes 11

Electoral count math showed how much trouble Harris was in. At 11 PM Trump’s lead was 211 to 145 according to CNN. And this was after California’s 53 electoral votes had been added to her column. She was 76 electoral votes behind Trump even after her two largest states (California and New York) were called for her.

All the while Georgia and North Carolina were holding for Trump while Hariss’s the blue wall was beginning to crumble.

The Pennsylvania slide continues

Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania had increased to 120,000 votes.

Trump’s battleground leads were in states where a high percentage of votes

had been counted. His leads were likely to hold, Harris’s were not.

11:15

While North Carolina and Georgia were on the brink of being called for Trump, Harris campaign manager Jennifer O’Malley Dillon sent out an email to boost Democratic morale. Not a good sign. It was clear that two thirds of three-state checkmate, was falling into place. JOD let the faithful know that the Harris campaign was prepared for a close race and a long night. Her words seemed hollow in light of how the election was quickly trending.

Many commentators continued to caution that no states had flipped, and no battleground states had been called. But the writing seemed to be on the wall. Brent Baer of Fox News quoted an unnamed democratic official saying “We’ve lost it.”

North Carolina and Georgia were called for Trump. “Check.”

12:45 Howard University

Harris campaign co-chair Cedrick Richmond must have drawn the short straw and was given the unenviable task of speaking to the faithful at Howard University. Richmond took the stage and delivered a non-concession concession speech remarkably similar to John Podesta’s swan song for Hillary in 2016.

That less than svelte singer was warming up to sing.

Pennsylvania fell to Trump.

“Checkmate.”